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| IPC发布2009年9月北美PCB行业报告 |
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结果显示北美PCB行业正迈向好转
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| [2009.11.5] |
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IPC日前发布每月一度的北美PCB行业统计数据。结果显示，2009年9月，刚性PCB和柔性PCB的订单出货比分别为1.09和0.95。相较于去年9月，2009年9月刚性PCB出货量下降15.9％，订单下降7.8%，但是比前一个月分别增长了21.7%和29.7%。而柔性PCB环比同比均有所上涨。具体内容如下：
PCB Industry Growth Rates and Book-to-Bill Ratios Announced
Rigid PCB shipments declined 15.9 percent and bookings were down 7.8 percent in September 2009 from September 2008. Year to date, rigid PCB shipments were down 27.3 percent and bookings fell by 24.7 percent. Compared to the previous month, rigid PCB shipments grew by 21.7 percent and rigid bookings increased 29.7 percent. The book-to-bill ratio for the North American rigid PCB industry in September 2009 remained at 1.09.
Flexible circuit shipments in September 2009 went up 7.9 percent and bookings increased 12.1 percent compared to September 2008. Year to date, flexible circuit shipments were down 1.5 percent and bookings were down 4.9 percent. Compared to the previous month, flexible circuit shipments went up 22.0 percent and flex bookings increased 48.1 percent. The North American flexible circuit book-to-bill ratio in September 2009 climbed to 0.95.
For rigid PCBs and flexible circuits combined, industry shipments in September 2009 decreased 14.3 percent from September 2008 and orders booked decreased 6.4 percent from September 2008. Year to date, combined industry shipments were down 25.5 percent and bookings were down 23.4 percent. Compared to the previous month, combined industry shipments for September 2009 increased 21.8 percent and bookings went up 31.0 percent. The combined (rigid and flex) industry book-to-bill ratio in September 2009 reached 1.08.
"We're finally starting to see the turnaround in the September numbers for the North American PCB industry," said IPC President Denny McGuirk. "Both rigid PCB and flexible circuit sales and orders are up by double digits compared to August. Rigid PCB sales and orders are still below September of last year, but the rate of decline is shrinking. Flexible circuit business is ahead of September last year. The most promising indicator is the book-to-bill ratio at 1.08," he added. "It has been above parity for five consecutive months."
The book-to-bill ratios are calculated by dividing the value of orders booked over the past three months by the value of sales billed during the same period from companies in IPC's survey sample. A ratio of more than 1.00 suggests that current demand is ahead of supply, which is a positive indicator for sales growth over the next two to six months.
Book-to-bill ratios and growth rates for rigid PCBs and flexible circuits combined are heavily affected by the rigid PCB segment. Rigid PCBs represent an estimated 91 percent of the current PCB industry in North America, according to IPC's World PCB Production and Laminate Market Report.
The Role of Domestic Production
IPC's monthly survey of the North American PCB industry tracks bookings and shipments from U.S. and Canadian facilities, which provide indicators of regional demand. These numbers do not measure U.S. and Canadian PCB production. To track regional production trends, however, IPC asks survey participants for the percent of their reported shipments that were produced domestically (i.e., in the USA or Canada). In September 2009, 84 percent of total PCB shipments reported were domestically produced. Domestic production accounted for 84 percent of rigid PCB and 86 percent of flexible circuit shipments in September by IPC survey participants. These numbers are significantly affected by the mix of companies in IPC's survey sample, which may change slightly in January, but are kept constant through the calendar year.
Bare Circuits Versus Assembly
Flexible circuit sales typically include value-added services such as assembly, in addition to the bare flex circuits. In September, the flexible circuit manufacturers in IPC's survey sample indicated that bare circuits accounted for approximately 65 percent of their shipment value reported for the month. Assembly and other services make up a large and growing segment of flexible circuit producers' businesses. This figure is also sensitive to changes in the survey sample, which may occur at the beginning of each calendar year.
Interpreting the Data
Year-on-year and year-to-date growth rates provide the most meaningful view of industry growth. Month-to-month comparisons should be made with caution as they may reflect cyclical effects. Because bookings tend to be more volatile than shipments, changes in the book-to-bill ratios from month to month may not be significant unless a trend of three consecutive months or more is apparent. It is also important to consider changes in bookings and shipments to understand what is driving changes in the book-to-bill ratio.
The information in IPC's monthly PCB industry statistics is based on data provided by a representative sample of both rigid and flexible PCB manufacturers in the USA and Canada. IPC publishes the PCB Book-to-Bill Ratio and the PCB Statistical Program Report each month. Statistics for the previous month are not available until the last week of the following month.
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